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Table 1 Observed and estimated (in the presence and absence of vaccination) total number of hospital admissions and admissions averted between 2003 and 2015, including 95% credible intervalsa

From: The impact of childhood pneumococcal vaccination on hospital admissions in England: a whole population observational study

  Bacteraemia Meningitis Pneumonia All diseases
Age group
 < 2 years
  Observed 1248 1818 1243 4309
  ITSb 1248 (1180, 1318) 1818(1735, 1903) 1243(1176, 1314) 4308(4181, 4440)
  Counterfactualc 2232 (1632, 3269) 2566(2103, 3265) 2707(2030, 3770) 7309(6276, 8629)
  Admissions avertedd −981(− 2018, − 391) − 749 (− 1442, − 295) −1464(− 2522, − 793) −3001(− 4314, − 1987)
 2–4 years
  Observed 411 227 861 1499
  ITS 411 (372, 452) 227(198, 257) 861(804, 920) 1499(1423, 1575)
  Counterfactual 536 (322, 1078) 607(268, 1753) 2595(1542, 4740) 3525(2463, 5325)
  Admissions averted −126(− 661, + 87) − 379(− 1526, − 45) − 1734(− 3871, − 692) −2026(− 3809, − 972)
 5–14 years
  Observed 290 279 796 1365
  ITS 290 (257, 324) 279(248, 313) 795(741, 852) 1365(1294, 1439)
  Counterfactual 703 (273, 2321) 647(295, 1778) 2407(1438, 4346) 3667(2414, 5884)
  Admissions averted −413(− 2030, + 14) −368(− 1492, − 19) − 1611(− 3536, − 647) −2302(− 4509, − 1058)
 15–44 years
  Observed 1546 939 7481 9966
  ITS 1545(1469, 1624) 939(880, 1000) 7480(7312, 7652) 9967(9772, 10,163)
  Counterfactual 2557(1750, 3922) 1499(950, 2569) 20,285(16,507, 25,257) 23,497(19,788, 28,185)
  Admissions averted −1011(− 2374, − 212) − 560(− 1625, − 12) −12,798(− 17,750, − 9020) −13,533(− 18,214, − 9822)
 45–64 years
  Observed 2620 1549 10,826 14,995
  ITS 2619(2521, 2722) 1549(1473, 1626) 10,827(10,628, 11,031) 14,994(14,755, 15,236)
  Counterfactual 4772(3458, 6866) 1995(1399, 2996) 22,598(18,790, 27,438) 28,712(24,596, 33,567)
  Admissions averted −2102(− 4232, − 854) −448(− 1442, + 141) − 11,777(− 16,597, − 7979) − 13,719(− 18,556, − 9628)
 ≥ 65 years
  Observed 5392 1199 21,781 6955
  ITS 5392(5249, 5538) 1199(1133, 1267) 21,779(21,492, 22,070) 28,371(28,040, 28,708)
  Counterfactual 4722 (3459, 6866) 1221(836, 1891) 38,751(34,403, 43,763) 43,284(39,036, 47,987)
  Admissions averted + 20(− 1199, + 929) −21(− 684, + 359) − 16,963(− 21,937, − 12,662) −14,909(− 19,564, − 10,693)
 All age groups
  Observed 11,507 6011 42,988 60,506
  ITS 11,506(11,298, 11,718) 6011(5862, 6165) 42,986(42,580, 43,393) 60,502(60,024, 60,979)
  Counterfactual 15,080(13,171, 17,492) 8266(7123, 9697) 84,821(77,680, 92,722) 104,022(96921111847)
  Admissions averted − 3571(− 5973, − 1682) − 2258(− 3667,-1122) −41,845(− 49,706,-34,692) −43,531(− 51,346,-36,486)
  1. aFor each diagnosis, separate models were fitted by age group
  2. bITS – interrupted time series - model the impact of vaccination
  3. cCounterfactual – expected hospital admissions in the absence of vaccination
  4. dAdmissions averted since April 2007