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Table 1 Associations between number of secondary infections and patient characteristics among pulmonary TB index patients in Victoria, 2005–2015. Negative binomial regression model

From: The role of super-spreading events in Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission: evidence from contact tracing

Variable Number of index patients Crude RR (95%CI) Adjusted RR (95%CI)
Age category (years) 0–14 140 0.43 (0.30–0.62)* 0.84 (0.56–1.26)
15–24 486 1.60 (1.32–1.95)* 0.94 (0.80–1.11)
25–44 890 Referent  
45–64 378 0.77 (0.61–0.96)* 1.02 (0.85–1.22)
65 and above 417 0.93 (0.75–1.15) 0.91 (0.77–1.09)
Sex Female 954 Referent  
Male 1357 0.95 (0.81–1.10) 0.93 (0.82–1.05)
Site of disease Pulmonary 1757 Referent  
Pulmonary plus additional sites 555 0.51 (0.43–0.62)* 0.58 (0.50–0.68)*
Patient detection pathway Clinical Presentation 1839 Referent  
Contact tracing 131 0.132 (0.08–0.21)* 0.29 (0.18–0.46)*
Screening 24 0.49 (0.23–1.11) 0.64 (0.33–1.22)
Health undertaking 317 0.37 (0.29–0.46)* 0.54 (0.44–0.67)*
CXR Normal 31 Referent  
Abnormal 879 1.79 (0.84–3.60) 1.18 (0.66–2.12)
Unknown 1401 1.95 (0.91–3.91) 1.27 (0.71–2.26)
Diagnosis Culture 1967 Referent  
PCR/NAT/Ht/Cs 130 0.15 (0.09–0.23)* 0.30 (0.19–0.45)*
Radiological 214 0.21 (0.15–0.29)* 0.45 (0.33–0.62)*
New or relapse New case 2177 Referent  
Relapse following full treatment 83 1.23 (0.84–1.86) 1.07 (0.78–1.47)
Relapse following partial treatment 30 0.53 (0.26–1.14) 0.70 (0.38–1.25)
Unknown 21 1.38(0.67–3.24) 1.02(0.56–1.91)
Number of contacts identified 18019a 1.06(1.05–1.06)* 1.04(1.04–1.05)*
  1. RR rate ratio, CI confidence interval, CXR Chest X-Ray, PCR/NAT/Ht/Cs Polymerase chain reaction/nucleic acid test/histology/clinical signs, Health undertaking is post migration follow-up program
  2. a=total number of contacts, * = statistically significant at P value < 0.05