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Table 3 Mean epidemic outcomes of 25 replicates for the “With predictor” and “Without predictor” scenarios in the Montgomery and Miami regions, under three vaccine efficacy levels of 20%, 40% and 60%

From: Impact of demographic disparities in social distancing and vaccination on influenza epidemics in urban and rural regions of the United States

Regions Epidemic measure Scenario Vaccine efficacy
    20% 40% 60%
Montgomery, VA Peak Infections (% of total population) With predictors 0.2 0.08 0.036
   Without predictors 0.16 0.05 0.033
  % increase With vs. Without predictors   25 60 9.09
  Peak day With predictors 81 83 40
   Without predictors 83 76 37
  % increase With vs. Without predictors   -2.41 9.21 8.10
  Total infections (% of total population) With predictors 11.57 4.28 1.23
   Without predictors 10.07 2.6 0.95
  % increase With vs. Without predictors   14.89 64.61 29.47
Miami, FL Peak infections (% of total population) With predictors 0.52 0.33 0.18
   Without predictors 0.5 0.29 0.153
  % increase With vs. Without predictors   4 13.79 18.3
  Peak day With predictors 50 54 58
   Without predictors 50 56 62
  % increase With vs. Without predictors   0 -3.57 -6.45
  Total infections (% of total population) With predictors 16.2 10.86 6.48
   Without predictors 15.42 9.64 5.37
  % increase With vs. Without predictors   5.05 12.65 20.67
  1. “With predictor” refers to the case where compliance probabilities are derived from the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model and are based on survey participant demographics, whereas “Without predictor” refers to the case where compliance probabilities are equal to mean compliance levels of all participants in the survey, irrespective of their demographics. The highlighted rows show the differences in epidemic outcomes under the two scenarios