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Table 4 Risk scores used to determine classification of countries according to wild and cVDPV risk and associated sensitivity, specificity and historical probability of an outbreak

From: An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia

Classification Low Medium Medium high High
Wild-type assessment
 Score from risk factors 0–2 3 4–5 6–8
 % of observations associated with an outbreak (95% CI) 0.8 (0.4, 1.3) 5.6 (3.1, 8.2) 18.5 (14.3, 23.9) 35.2 (24.2, 46.4)
 Sensitivity 100.0% 89.9% 69.7% 24.2%
 Specificity 0.0% 67.9% 86.5% 97.5%
cVDPV-type assessment
 Score from risk factors 0–3 4–5 6–7 8–9
 % of observations associated with an outbreak (95% CI) 0.3 (0.1, 0.6) 2.5 (1.2, 4.1) 12.5 (4.1, 22.2) 34.3 (18.2, 51.6)
 Sensitivity 100.0% 88.2% 67.6% 38.2%
 Specificity 0.0% 73.1% 93.4% 99.0%