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Table 3 Explanatory variables used in the risk score to assess vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreak risk, based on a regression analysis of data from 2003 to 2016

From: An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia

Variable Factor p-value Risk estimate Risk score
Population Immunity
 Routine 95+   baseline 0
 immunisation 85–95 <0.001 1.51 (1.23, 1.85) 1
75–85   2.27 (1.85, 2.78) 1
65–75   3.42 (2.79, 4.19) 2
<65   5.15 (4.2, 6.31) 2
 Under-immunised 0–20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0–2 OPV doses   baseline 0
>20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0–2 OPV doses 0.18 1.48 (0.84, 2.61) 1
 Zero dose 0–20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0 OPV doses   baseline 0
>20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0 OPV doses 0.427 0.40 (0.04, 3.82) 1
Susceptibility
 cVDPV outbreaks in last 0–4 years No   baseline 0
Yes 0.005 3.41 (1.44, 8.07) 1
 Population displacement 0–10% of population displaced   baseline 0
>10% of population displaced 0.005 3.25 (1.43, 7.38) 1
 Livebirths per year <500,000   baseline 0
<1,000,000 0.004 6.94 (1.86, 25.93) 2
+1 mill <0.001 29.32 (8.3, 103.48) 4