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Table 2 Explanatory variables used in the risk score to assess poliomyelitis outbreak risk, based on a regression analysis of data from 2003 to 2016

From: An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia

Variable Factor p-value Risk estimate (95% CI) Risk score
Population immunity
 Under-immunised 0–20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0–2 OPV doses   baseline 0
>20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0–2 OPV doses 0.180 1.48 (0.84, 2.61) 1
 Zero dose 0–20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0 OPV doses   baseline 0
>20% of non-polio AFP reporting 0 OPV doses 0.427 0.4 (0.04, 3.82) 1
 Routine immunisation 80–100% of children under 2 with 3 DPT doses   baseline 0
<80% of children under 2 with 3 DPT doses 0.023 2.64 (1.57, 4.45) 1
Exposure to poliomyelitis
 Bordering countries with wild poliomyelitis in last 6 months No   baseline 0
Yes <0.001 4.77 (2.31, 9.88) 1
 Migration and wild exposure Low   baseline 0
Medium 0.060 1.77 (0.98, 3.2) 1
High <0.001 5.58 (2.93, 10.65) 1
 Migration and wild poliomyelitis exposure - expert opinion Limited evidence of wild poliomyelitis exposure   baseline 0
Evidence of wild poliomyelitis exposure not tested not tested 1
Susceptibility
 Population displacement 0–10% of population displaced   baseline 0
>10% of population displaced 0.116 1.62 (0.89, 2.94) 1
 Diarrhoea-associated mortality 0–199 deaths per 100,000 per year in children <5 years   baseline 0
>200 deaths per 100,000 per year in children <5 years 0.001 1.96 (1.1, 3.52) 1
 Previous importations No wild poliomyelitis importations in previous 4 years   baseline 0
Wild poliomyelitis importations in previous 4 years <0.001 2.75 (1.52, 4.97) 1
 Humanitarian emergencies - expert opinion None reported   baseline 0
Country of concern not tested not tested 1