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Table 1 Variables tested in the regressions models that were tested for an association with wild and VDPV outbreaks

From: An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia

Variable Description Data source Continuous/discrete Wild outbreaks cVDPV outbreaks
Population immunity
 Under-immunised Smoothed % of children under 5 yo with >2 OPV doses AFP Both Y Y
 Zero-dose Smoothed % children under 5 yo with 0 OPV doses AFP Both Y Y
 Routine immunisation % under 1 yo that received 3+ doses of the DTP vaccine WHO/Unicef Both Y Y
Surveillance quality
 Stool surveillance % AFP cases under 15 yo with adequatea stool samples processed AFP Discrete Y Y
 npAFP rate Number of non-polio AFP cases per 100,000 population under 15 yo AFP Discrete Y Y
Historical propensity
 Wild-type outbreaks Number of wild-type outbreaks reported in last 4 years WHO Both Y Not tested
 Wild-type multi-case outbreaks Number of wild-type outbreaks with >1 case reported in last 4 years WHO Both Y Not tested
 cVDPV outbreaks Number of VDPV outbreaks reported in last 4 years    Not tested Y
 cVDPVs multi-case outbreaks Number of VDPV outbreaks with >1 case reported in last 4 years    Not tested Y
Migration
 Proximity Wild-type outbreak present in a bordering country in last 6 months Cluster description Discrete Y Not tested
 Proximity scaled The number of poliomyelitis cases in bordering countries in previous six months Cluster description Continuous Y Not tested
 Migrants Number of migrants multiplied by incidence within country in previous 6 months www.migrationdrc.org Both Y Not tested
 Refugees Number of refugees multiplied by incidence within country in previous 6 months UNHCR Both Y Not tested
Humanitarian concern
 Displaced % total population registered as refugees and internally displaced persons UNHCR Discrete Y Y
 Other events (Ebola) Adverse humanitarian events that have occurred in the previous 4 years Expert opinion Discrete Y Y
  1. aAdequate stools refer to two samples from AFP cases being collected ≥24 h apart, both within 14 days of paralysis onset