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Table 11 Different error measures calculated for one-step-ahead epidemic curve over whole season (2013-2014), averaged across all HHS regions: Comparing Methods M1 to M6 and ARIMA approach

From: A framework for evaluating epidemic forecasts

  MAE RMSE MAPE sMAPE MdAPE MdsAPE
Method 1 316.18 378.63 0.39 0.33 0.34 0.29
Method 2 293.76 357.34 0.35 0.31 0.30 0.26
Method 3 224.53 293.52 0.25 0.22 0.22 0.20
Method 4 204.5 274.41 0.21 0.21 0.18 0.18
Method 5 224.57 293.90 0.25 0.22 0.22 0.20
Method 6 204.25 274.97 0.21 0.20 0.18 0.18
ARIMA 1015.60 1187.62 0.77 0.74 0.78 0.75