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Table 1 Notation and Symbols

From: A framework for evaluating epidemic forecasts

Symbol Definition
y(t) number of new cases of disease in the t th week observed in surveillance data
x(t) number of new cases of disease in the t th week predicted by forecasting methods
x start number of new cases of disease predicted at the start of epidemic season
x peak predicted value of the maximum number of new cases of the disease
e t e t =y t x t : the prediction error
T duration of the epidemic season
\( \bar {y} \) \(\bar {y}=\frac {1}{T} \sum _{t=1}^{T} (y_{t}) \) : the mean for y values over T weeks
σ 2 \( \sigma ^{2}=\frac {1}{T-1} \sum _{t=1}^{T} (y_{t}-\bar {y})^{2} \) : The variance of y values over T weeks
n tot Total number of infected persons during specified period
n ps The population size at the start of specified period
n tot (a g e) Total number of infected persons with specific age during the specified period
n ps (a g e) The population size with specific age at the start of specified period
n c or n contacts is the number of contacts of primary infected persons
n sg or n s e c o n dg e n e r a t i o n is the new number of infected persons among the contacts of primary infected individuals during a specified period
G M{E r r o r} \( GM(e)= \left (\prod _{i=1}^{n}(e_{i})\right)^{(1/n)} \) : Geometric Mean of a set of Errors
M{E r r o r} Arithmetic Mean of a set of Errors
M d{E r r o r} Median value of a set of Errors
R M S{E r r o r} Root Mean Square of a set of Errors