number of new cases of disease in the t^{th} week observed in surveillance data
x(t)
number of new cases of disease in the t^{th} week predicted by forecasting methods
x_{
start
}
number of new cases of disease predicted at the start of epidemic season
x_{
peak
}
predicted value of the maximum number of new cases of the disease
e_{
t
}
e_{
t
}=y_{
t
}−x_{
t
} : the prediction error
T
duration of the epidemic season
\( \bar {y} \)
\(\bar {y}=\frac {1}{T} \sum _{t=1}^{T} (y_{t}) \) : the mean for y values over T weeks
σ^{2}
\( \sigma ^{2}=\frac {1}{T-1} \sum _{t=1}^{T} (y_{t}-\bar {y})^{2} \) : The variance of y values over T weeks
n_{
tot
}
Total number of infected persons during specified period
n_{
ps
}
The population size at the start of specified period
n_{
tot
}(age)
Total number of infected persons with specific age during the specified period
n_{
ps
}(age)
The population size with specific age at the start of specified period
n_{
c
}
or n_{
contacts
} is the number of contacts of primary infected persons
n_{
sg
}
or n_{
s
e
c
o
n
d−g
e
n
e
r
a
t
i
o
n
} is the new number of infected persons among the contacts of primary infected individuals during a specified period
GM{Error}
\( GM(e)= \left (\prod _{i=1}^{n}(e_{i})\right)^{(1/n)} \) : Geometric Mean of a set of Errors