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Table 2 Composite prevalence estimates when the “true” underlying type-specific infection burden is pre-specified as the reported prevalence in the Northwest Territories, Canada

From: Evaluation of using composite HPV genotyping assay results to monitor human papillomavirus infection burden through simulation

No. of HPV types* Time§ Pre-specified true composite prevalence (SD) Composite prevalence estimate (SD) Est. to true ratio Composite prevalence estimate (SD) Est. to true ratio Composite prevalence estimate (SD) Est. to true ratio Composite prevalence estimate (SD) Est. to true ratio
a: Sensitivity ≤ Specificity       
    Sen. = 0.95   Sen. = 0.90   Sen. = 0.85   Sen. = 0.80  
    Spe. = 0.95   Spe. = 0.95   Spe. = 0.95   Spe. = 0.95  
2 Baseline 0.053 (0.004) 0.142 (0.006) 2.676 0.140 (0.005) 2.642 0.138 (0.005) 2.604 0.135 (0.005) 2.547
  Reduced 0.027 (0.003) 0.120 (0.005) 4.444 0.119 (0.005) 4.407 0.117 (0.005) 4.333 0.116 (0.005) 4.296
  % red. 49.1 15.5   15.0   15.2   14.1  
4 Baseline 0.064 (0.004) 0.231 (0.007) 3.609 0.229 (0.006) 3.578 0.226 (0.006) 3.531 0.224 (0.006) 3.500
  Reduced 0.033 (0.003) 0.207 (0.006) 6.272 0.206 (0.006) 6.242 0.204 (0.006) 6.181 0.203 (0.007) 6.152
  % red. 48.4 10.4   10.0   9.7   9.4  
22 Baseline 0.216 (0.006) 0.701 (0.007) 3.245 0.697 (0.007) 3.227 0.694 (0.004) 3.213 0.690 (0.007) 3.194
  Reduced 0.194 (0.006) 0.694 (0.007) 3.577 0.691 (0.007) 3.562 0.687 (0.007) 3.541 0.684 (0.007) 3.526
  % red. 10.2 0.9   0.9   1.0   0.9  
45 Baseline 0.287 (0.007) 0.841 (0.006) 2.930 0.839 (0.006) 2.923 0.836 (0.006) 2.913 0.834 (0.006) 2.906
  Reduced 0.265 (0.007) 0.838 (0.006) 3.162 0.835 (0.006) 3.151 0.833 (0.006) 3.143 0.831 (0.006) 3.136
  % red. 7.6 0.4   0.5   0.4   0.4  
b: Sensitivity ≥ Specificity       
    Sen. = 0.95   Sen. = 0.95   Sen. = 0.95   Sen. = 0.95  
    Spe. = 0.95   Spe. = 0.90   Spe. = 0.85   Spe. = 0.80  
2 Baseline 0.052 (0.004) 0.142 (0.006) 2.731 0.229 (0.006) 4.404 0.311 (0.007) 5.981 0.387 (0.008) 7.442
  Reduced 0.027 (0.003) 0.120 (0.005) 4.444 0.209 (0.007) 7.74 0.293 (0.007) 10.85 0.371 (0.008) 13.74
  % red. 49.1 15.5   8.7   5.8   4.1  
4 Baseline 0.064 (0.004) 0.231 (0.007) 3.609 0.375 (0.007) 5.859 0.497 (0.008) 7.766 0.599 (0.008) 9.359
  Reduced 0.033 (0.003) 0.207 (0.006) 6.272 0.356 (0.008) 10.78 0.482 (0.009) 14.61 0.588 (0.008) 17.82
  % red. 48.4 10.4   5.1   3.0   1.8  
22 Baseline 0.216 (0.007) 0.701 (0.007) 3.245 0.883 (0.005) 4.088 0.954 (0.003) 4.417 0.983 (0.002) 4.551
  Reduced 0.194 (0.006) 0.694 (0.007) 3.577 0.881 (0.005) 4.541 0.954 (0.003) 4.917 0.982 (0.002) 5.062
  % red. 10.2 0.9   0.2   0   0.1  
45 Baseline 0.288 (0.007) 0.841 (0.006) 2.920 0.961 (0.003) 3.337 0.990 (0.002) 3.438 0.997 (0.001) 3.462
  Reduced 0.265 (0.007) 0.838 (0.006) 3.162 0.960 (0.003) 3.623 0.990 (0.002) 3.736 0.997 (0.001) 3.762
  % red. 7.6 0.4   0.1   0   0  
  1. *2: high-risk vaccine types(HPV 16, 18); 4: vaccine types (HPV 6, 11, 16, 18); 23: high-risk types (HPV 16, 18, 26, 30, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 53, 56, 58, 59, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 73, 82, 85); 45: any types (HPV 6, 11, 13, 16, 18, 26, 30, 31, 32, 33, 35, 39, 40, 42, 43, 44, 45, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 58, 59, 61, 62, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 89, 90, 91).
  2. §Pre-specified type-specific prevalence at baseline:HPV6 = 0.009, HPV11 = 0.003, HPV13 = 0.001, HPV16 = 0.041, HPV18 = 0.013, HPV26 = 0, HPV30 = 0.002, HPV31 = 0.021, HPV32 = 0.001, HPV33 = 0.007, HPV35 = 0.007, HPV39 = 0.016, HPV40 = 0.005, HPV42 = 0.013, HPV43 = 0.002, HPV44 = 0.003, HPV45 = 0.015, HPV51 = 0.016, HPV52 = 0.014, HPV53 = 0.005,HPV54 = 0.008, HPV56 = 0.010, HPV58 = 0.013, HPV59 = 0.012, HPV62 = 0.016, HPV66 = 0.019, HPV67 = 0.013, HPV68 = 0.003, HPV69 = 0.003, HPV70 = 0.011, HPV72 = 0.007, HPV73 = 0.005, HPV74 = 0.007, HPV81 = 0.007, HPV82 = 0.002, HPV83 = 0.007, HPV84 = 0.004, HPV85 = 0.003, HPV89 = 0.010, HPV90 = 0.004, HPV86 = 0.004, HPV87 = 0.001, HPV91 = 0.001, HPV61 = 0.001, HPV71 = 0.
  3. Reduced: vaccine types (HPV 6, 11, 16, 18) are reduced 50%.