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Table 5 Sensitivity analysis exploring the influence of the duration of naturally acquired immunity D I

From: 4Flu - an individual based simulation tool to study the effects of quadrivalent vaccination on seasonal influenza in Germany

D I Influenza A Influenza B Prevented
No vaccination TIV or QIV No vaccination TIV QIV QIV-TIV %
4 12644 6965 6743 4302 3785 517 4.6
(12548–12740) (6896–7035) (6681–6805) (4256–4349) (3741–3829) (490–545) (4.3-4.8)
6 9820 5597 5229 3346 2951 395 4.3
(9750–9891) (5550–5643) (5183–5275) (3313–3379) (2920–2982) (376–414) (4.1-4.5)
8 8482 4944 4474 2924 2595 329 4.1
(8385–8579) (4878–5010) (4410–4539) (2879–2970) (2552–2638) (305–354) (3.8-4.4)
10 7682 4524 4055 2631 2363 267 3.7
(7585–7780) (4460–4589) (3990–4119) (2585–2676) (2320–2406) (243–291) (3.3-4.0)
12 7209 4259 3766 2476 2194 282 4.1
(7110–7307) (4195–4323) (3702–3831) (2432–2520) (2152–2236) (257–306) (3.7-4.5)
  1. Average annual results (with 95% confidence intervals) obtained for the 20 year evaluation period (calculated from 1,000 simulations for each combination of D I and vaccination strategy in a simulated population of about 80,000 individuals (2,000 simulations each for the baseline value of 6 years; boldface line). The immunity loss rate (baseline value 1/(9.13 years)) is varied to obtain the average duration of immunity given in the D I column; these values apply to A(H1N1) and to the B lineages. Due to the higher drift frequency, the resulting durations for A(H3N2) are lower: 3.2 years, 4.5 years, 5.5 years, 6.4 years and 7.1 years, respectively. The last column shows what percentage of all influenza A and B infections which occur under TIV vaccination can additionally be prevented by QIV.