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Table 4 Sensitivity analysis exploring the influence of the basic reproduction number R 0

From: 4Flu - an individual based simulation tool to study the effects of quadrivalent vaccination on seasonal influenza in Germany

R 0 Influenza A Influenza B Prevented
No vaccination TIV or QIV No vaccination TIV QIV QIV-TIV %
1.2 5880 1954 3054 1400 1075 325 9.5
(5823–5936) (1923–1985) (3018–3089) (1379–1422) (1056–1095) (306–344) (8.9-10.1)
1.3 7221 3061 3754 1999 1626 373 7.3
(7151–7290) (3018–3104) (3709–3798) (1970–2028) (1599–1652) (350–396) (6.8-7.7)
1.4 8359 4106 4363 2541 2167 374 5.5
(8276–8442) (4055–4158) (4311–4415) (2506–2577) (2133–2201) (350–398) (5.2-5.9)
1.5 9302 5009 4889 3063 2677 386 4.8
(9209–9395) (4946–5071) (4830–4947) (3021–3105) (2638–2717) (360–411) (4.4-5.1)
1.575 9820 5597 5229 3346 2951 395 4.3
(9750–9891) (5550–5643) (5183–5275) (3313–3379) (2920–2982) (376–414) (4.1-4.5)
1.6 10154 5787 5345 3482 3086 396 4.2
(10051–10256) (5716–5858) (5280–5410) (3435–3529) (3041–3132) (370–422) (3.9-4.5)
1.7 10893 6510 5736 3880 3469 411 3.9
(10784–11002) (6433–6587) (5664–5809) (3826–3934) (3419–3518) (385–437) (3.7-4.2)
1.8 11494 7116 6060 4218 3820 398 3.5
(11374–11614) (7032–7200) (5982–6138) (4160–4277) (3765–3875) (372–424) (3.3-3.7)
1.9 12063 7669 6383 4523 4139 383 3.1
(11935–12190) (7578–7760) (6301–6466) (4461–4584) (4081–4198) (357–409) (2.9-3.3)
2.0 12354 8183 6640 4790 4404 385 3.0
(12227–12480) (8087–8279) (6550–6731) (4724–4855) (4342–4467) (359–411) (2.8-3.2)
  1. Average annual results (with 95% confidence intervals) obtained for the 20 year evaluation period (calculated from 1,000 simulations for each combination of R 0 and vaccination strategy in a simulated population of about 80,000 individuals (2,000 simulations each for the baseline value of R 0  = 1.575; boldface line). The last column shows what percentage of all influenza A and B infections which occur under TIV vaccination can additionally be prevented by QIV.