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Table 1 List of parameters and baseline values

From: 4Flu - an individual based simulation tool to study the effects of quadrivalent vaccination on seasonal influenza in Germany

Parameter Baseline Reference
Basic reproduction number R 0 1.575 Calibration
Maximum seasonal transmission factor 1.43 [31]
Day of maximum seasonal transmission Dec. 21st [31]
Duration of the latent period 2 days [32]
External infection probability 0.0003/year Assumed
Duration of the infectious period   [32]
- children (age 0–17 years) 4 days
- adults (age 18 years and above) 2 days
Duration of maternal protection 2 - 4 months [33, 34]
Immunity loss rate after infection (irrespective of influenza subtype or lineage) 1/(9.13 years) Calculated from [31]
Average circulation time per drift variant   Calculated from [35] and [3]
- A(H1N1), B/Vic, B/Yam 7.0 years
- A(H3N2) 3.5 years
Vaccination coverage   [38]
- no risk group, 0.5-2 years of age 19.2%
- no risk group, 3–6 years of age 22.4%
- no risk group, 7–10 years of age 23.6%
- no risk group, 11–15 years of age 11.0%
- no risk group, 16–59 years of age 16.9%
- no risk group, 60 years of age or older 48.8%
- risk group, 0.5-59 years of age 33.0%
- risk group, 60 years of age or older 64.9%
Revaccination preference factor 2 Assumed
Probability of mismatched vaccine design when a new drift variant occurs 40% Calculated from [3, 35, 42]
Vaccine efficacy (well-matched vaccine; irrespective of influenza subtype or lineage)   
- 0–1 year of age 45% [40]
- 2–5 years of age 39% [40]
- 6–15 years of age 69% [40]
- 16–64 years of age 73% [39]
- 65 years of age or older 58% [41]
Cross protection after infection   Calculated from [39]
- percentage of individuals who are immunized against a B lineage when they are infected (or booster-infected) with the other B lineage (lineage cross protection) 60%
- percentage of individuals who were immune against the previous drift variant, who are still protected against the new one (drift cross protection) 60%
Cross protection after vaccination   Calculated from [39]
- vaccine efficacy multiplication factor for B lineage not contained in TIV (lineage cross protection) 0.6
- vaccine efficacy multiplication factor for vaccinations with drift mismatch (drift cross protection) 0.6
Immunity loss rate after vaccination 1/(1.8 years) Calculated from [44]
Percentage of the population with elevated risk   [43]
- newborn individuals 3.0%
- age 0 to 15 years 6.0%
- age 16 to 59 years 14.2%
- age 60 years and above 47.1%